Arbguy
0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
✓ on-chain verified · Polygon
✓ Verified HumanTotal profit
$530.2k
ROI
+0.8%
Volume
$63.05M
Markets
978
Position accuracy
50%
PnL chart
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Open positions (20)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
+$13.5k
$57.8k value
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
+$9.2k
$39.5k value
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
+$3.0k
$38.1k value
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
+$4.2k
$31.9k value
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
+$1.4k
$30.6k value
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
+$3.1k
$26.7k value
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
+$9.0k
$21.0k value
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
+$497
$16.7k value
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$-3.9k
$13.2k value
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
+$400
$11.3k value
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$-230
$10.5k value
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
+$861
$7.2k value
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
$-9.6k
$6.5k value
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
$-267
$5.8k value
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
$-37.7k
$5.7k value
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$-288
$5.2k value
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
$-52
$1.7k value
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
$-569
$511 value
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
$-2.6k
$457 value
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
$-25
$361 value
Recent trades (100)
BUY
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?
Yes
$15
@ 20¢
1h ago
BUY
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?
Yes
$8
@ 20¢
1h ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No
$4
@ 79¢
2d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No
$4
@ 79¢
2d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No
$6
@ 79¢
2d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No
$432
@ 79¢
2d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$46
@ 8¢
4d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$144
@ 8¢
4d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$375
@ 8¢
4d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$16
@ 8¢
4d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$122
@ 8¢
4d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$1.2k
@ 8¢
4d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$1
@ 8¢
4d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$1
@ 8¢
4d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$4
@ 8¢
4d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$32
@ 8¢
4d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$98
@ 8¢
4d ago
BUY
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No
$5.4k
@ 30¢
4d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No
$6.8k
@ 45¢
4d ago
BUY
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
No
$13
@ 20¢
6d ago
BUY
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
No
$756
@ 20¢
6d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No
$2
@ 84¢
6d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No
$42
@ 84¢
6d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No
$42
@ 84¢
6d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No
$436
@ 84¢
6d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No
$103
@ 84¢
6d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No
$2.5k
@ 84¢
6d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No
$3.7k
@ 84¢
6d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No
$12
@ 83¢
6d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No
$834
@ 83¢
6d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No
$6.2k
@ 83¢
6d ago
BUY
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No
$2
@ 83¢
6d ago
BUY
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
No
$3.7k
@ 30¢
7d ago
SELL
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
Yes
$17.7k
@ 97¢
7d ago
BUY
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
No
$24
@ 30¢
7d ago
BUY
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
No
$68
@ 30¢
7d ago
BUY
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
No
$20
@ 30¢
7d ago
BUY
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
No
$64
@ 30¢
7d ago
BUY
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
No
$54
@ 30¢
7d ago
BUY
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
No
$600
@ 30¢
7d ago
BUY
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
No
$44
@ 30¢
7d ago
BUY
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
Yes
$10
@ 5¢
7d ago
BUY
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
Yes
$457
@ 4¢
7d ago
BUY
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
Yes
$2
@ 5¢
7d ago
BUY
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
$2.5k
@ 5¢
7d ago
BUY
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
No
$636
@ 50¢
7d ago
SELL
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
Yes
$205
@ 82¢
7d ago
SELL
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No
$26
@ 85¢
7d ago
SELL
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
Yes
$3.0k
@ 82¢
7d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$6.1k
@ 29¢
7d ago
SELL
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No
$180
@ 85¢
7d ago
SELL
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No
$1
@ 85¢
7d ago
SELL
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No
$6.8k
@ 85¢
7d ago
SELL
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
No
$19.6k
@ 97¢
7d ago
BUY
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Yes
$3.1k
@ 25¢
7d ago
SELL
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
No
$551
@ 97¢
7d ago
SELL
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No
$20
@ 85¢
7d ago
SELL
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No
$824
@ 85¢
7d ago
SELL
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
No
$1
@ 97¢
7d ago
SELL
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
No
$6
@ 97¢
7d ago
BUY
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
Yes
$122
@ 48¢
7d ago
BUY
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
Yes
$2
@ 48¢
7d ago
BUY
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
Yes
$1
@ 48¢
7d ago
BUY
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
Yes
$42
@ 48¢
7d ago
BUY
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?
Yes
$21
@ 17¢
7d ago
BUY
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?
Yes
$497
@ 6¢
8d ago
BUY
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?
Yes
$618
@ 8¢
8d ago
BUY
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
No
$818
@ 95¢
8d ago
BUY
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
No
$11.7k
@ 95¢
8d ago
BUY
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
Yes
$15.1k
@ 68¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$3
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$4
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$31
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$1
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$2
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$9
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$2
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$6
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$1
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$20
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$29
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$2
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$145
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$3
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$1
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$0
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$4
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$2
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$11
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes
$734
@ 71¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$29
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes
$14
@ 71¢
8d ago
BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes
$2
@ 71¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$8
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes
$158
@ 71¢
8d ago
BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes
$5
@ 71¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$424
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes
$13
@ 71¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$3
@ 29¢
8d ago
BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
$6
@ 29¢
8d ago